Will Trump and Xi hug at APEC Odds
Polymarket traders give No a 96% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | +2339 | — |
| No | 96% | -2339 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
Donald Trump is scheduled to visit China to attend the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Shenzhen on November 18-19, 2026, where he is expected to meet Xi Jinping. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump and Xi Jinping hug at any point during this visit. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Video or photographic evidence of the hug must be released during the calendar days (China Standard Time) of the visit to qualify. A qualifying hug is defined as an in-person greeting or gesture involving the two individuals wrapping at least one arm around the other individual's shoulders or back while facing each other in a manner consistent with a hug. Gestures where only one individual places an arm around the other, or where both individuals place arms around each other while standing side by side and not facing each other, will not qualify as a hug. Brief incidental contact, such as a pat on the back or shoulder without arm-wrapping from both parties, will similarly not qualify. For the purposes of this market, the visit begins when Donald Trump enters the terrestrial or maritime territory of China and ends once Donald Trump physically departs from Chinese territory. This market may resolve at the end of the calendar day (China Standard Time) that Donald Trump physically departs from Chinese territory at the end of the visit. If Donald Trump does not physically enter the terrestrial or maritime territory of China by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source will be based on photographic/video footage.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Will Trump and Xi hug at APEC"?
As of Nov 11, 5:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No at 96%, about -2339 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Dec 1, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Will Trump and Xi hug at APEC?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.