Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026 Odds
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ 7.50% | 45% | +125 | ▲ 16 |
| ↓ 6.50% | 2% | +5782 | ▼ 2 |
| ↓ 6.25% | 4% | +2464 | — |
| ↓ 6.00% | 4% | +2757 | — |
| ↑ 7.75% | 9% | +1011 | ▼ 2 |
| ↓ 7.00% | 61% | -156 | ▲ 7 |
| ↓ 6.75% | 11% | +852 | ▼ 4 |
| ↑ 8.00% | 10% | +953 | ▼ 1 |
| ↓ 5.90% | 1% | +7592 | ▼ 3 |
| ↓ 5.70% | <1% | +19900 | ▼ 1 |
| ↓ 5.50% | 2% | +6352 | — |
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Price history
On Kalshi
The same question also trades on Kalshi. Check the resolution rules before comparing prices: small wording differences change what pays out.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or beyond (equal to or above for ↑ HIGH rates, equal to or below for ↓ LOW rates) the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or beyond the listed rate for a qualifying week, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 15, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?
This market trades on Polymarket and a matching market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.