Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by...? Odds
Polymarket traders give No a 54% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 46% | +117 | ▲ 4 |
| No | 54% | -117 | ▼ 4 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the bitcoin holding officially owned by the Republic of the El Salvador government reaches or surpasses a value of $1b at any point by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolutions source for this market will be the ARKHAM INTEL tracker (see: https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/el-salvador). Any temporary glitches or errors in the tracker will not be considered. If the tracker becomes permanently unavailable another credible source may be used. Official announcements form the government of El Salvador confirming their bitcoin holdings have reached or surpassed $1b in value will also qualify.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by...?"?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No at 54%, about -117 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by...??
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