Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend Odds
Polymarket traders give Avengers: Doomsday a 97% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dune 3 | 3% | +3746 | — |
| Avengers: Doomsday | 97% | -3746 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
Avengers: Doomsday and Dune 3 are scheduled for release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized. If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Avengers: Doomsday at 97%, about -3746 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Dec 20, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.