Who will release a new song this year Odds · 2026
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bad Bunny | 87% | -669 | — | — |
| The Weeknd | 90% | -900 | — | — |
| Justin Bieber | 72% | -257 | — | — |
| Eminem | 83% | -488 | ▼ 1 | — |
| Rihanna | 11% | +809 | — | — |
| Billie Eilish | 84% | -525 | — | — |
| Kendrick Lamar | 36% | +178 | ▲ 13 | — |
| Post Malone | 96% | -2400 | — | — |
| Coldplay | 67% | -203 | — | — |
| Nicki Minaj | 69% | -223 | ▼ 1 | 42% |
| Dua Lipa | 85% | -567 | — | — |
| Linkin Park | 34% | +194 | — | — |
| Shawn Mendes | 54% | -117 | — | — |
| Justin Timberlake ✓ | 92% | -1150 | — | — |
| Daft Punk | 12% | +733 | — | — |
| Tate McRae ✓ | 96% | -2400 | — | — |
| Migos | 64% | -178 | — | — |
| Fall Out Boy | 72% | -257 | — | — |
| Roddy Ricch ✓ | 10% | +900 | — | — |
| Camilo ✓ | 99% | -9900 | — | — |
| NF | 56% | -127 | — | — |
| Lil Nas X ✓ | 99% | -9900 | — | — |
| PARTYNEXTDOOR | 97% | -3233 | — | — |
| Mariah Carey | 47% | +113 | — | — |
| Chappell Roan ✓ | 90% | -900 | — | — |
| Olivia Dean | 64% | -178 | — | — |
| The Marías | 87% | -669 | — | — |
| Addison Rae | 69% | -223 | — | — |
| Frank Ocean | 29% | +251 | — | 27% |
| Geese | 70% | -233 | — | — |
| Clairo | 60% | -150 | — | — |
| Zara Larsson | 94% | -1567 | — | — |
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On Polymarket
The same question also trades on Polymarket. Check the resolution rules before comparing prices: small wording differences change what pays out.
Resolution rules
If Bad Bunny releases a new song in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Who will release a new song this year?
This market trades on Kalshi and a matching market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.