Which movie has 3rd biggest opening weekend in 2026 Odds
Polymarket traders give Toy Story 5 a 88% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toy Story 5 | 88% | -700 | ▲ 1 |
| The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping | 5% | +2005 | — |
| Dune: Messiah | 3% | +2799 | — |
| Avengers: Doomsday | 1% | +7900 | — |
| Spider-Man: Brand New Day | <1% | +199900 | — |
| The Super Mario Galaxy Movie | <1% | +199900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Which movie has 3rd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Toy Story 5 at 88%, about -700 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Feb 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Which movie has 3rd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.