Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026 Odds
Polymarket traders give None in 2026 a 59% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| None in 2026 | 59% | -141 | ▲ 6 |
| 28% | +260 | ▼ 4 | |
| Anthropic | 9% | +1011 | ▼ 4 |
| OpenAI | 3% | +2885 | — |
| xAI | <1% | +15285 | — |
| DeepSeek | <1% | +39900 | — |
| Alibaba | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Z.ai | <1% | +199900 | — |
| Mistral | <1% | +199900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026". If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price None in 2026 at 59%, about -141 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.