Which company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of December Odds
Polymarket traders give Google a 83% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 83% | -471 | ▲ 1 | |
| Black Forest Labs | 8% | +1174 | ▲ 1 |
| OpenAI | 7% | +1438 | — |
| ByteDance | 6% | +1567 | ▼ 0 |
| Pruna | 6% | +1581 | ▼ 1 |
| Tencent | 6% | +1654 | ▼ 1 |
| Meta | 6% | +1686 | ▼ 1 |
| Kandinsky | 6% | +1686 | ▼ 1 |
| Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH | 6% | +1702 | ▼ 1 |
| Pika | 6% | +1702 | ▼ 1 |
| MiniMax | 6% | +1718 | ▼ 2 |
| KlingAI | 5% | +1823 | — |
| SpaceXAI | 4% | +2199 | — |
| Pixverse | 4% | +2717 | — |
| Lightricks | 3% | +3604 | — |
| Luma AI | 3% | +3746 | — |
| Runway | <1% | +18082 | — |
| Genmo AI | <1% | +39900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Which company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of December?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Google at 83%, about -471 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Which company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of December?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.