Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year Odds · In 2026
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Meta | 12% | +770 | ▲ 5 |
| Nvidia | 3% | +3900 | — |
| xAI | 6% | +1567 | ▲ 1 |
| Mistral | 3% | +3233 | — |
| Deepseek | 3% | +3900 | ▼ 5 |
| Alibaba | 4% | +2757 | — |
| 01A1 | 2% | +4900 | — |
| Zhipu AI | 0% | — | — |
| OpenAI | 9% | +1011 | ▼ 1 |
| Baidu | 4% | +2757 | ▼ 1 |
| Z.ai | 2% | +4900 | — |
| Moonshot AI | 3% | +3900 | — |
| ByteDance | 3% | +3233 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
If Meta has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Jan 2, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
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