Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31 Odds
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI | 11% | +809 | — |
| Alibaba | 3% | +2930 | — |
| xAI | 5% | +1900 | — |
| ByteDance | 2% | +6352 | — |
| Baidu | 3% | +2930 | — |
| Moonshot | 3% | +3674 | — |
| Amazon | 2% | +6150 | — |
| Z.ai | 2% | +4900 | ▼ 1 |
| Mistral | 2% | +3982 | — |
| DeepSeek | 3% | +3025 | — |
| Meituan | 2% | +4155 | — |
| Meta | 11% | +852 | — |
| Microsoft | 2% | +4445 | ▼ 1 |
| Anthropic | 43% | +135 | ▼ 7 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
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