Which companies added to S&P 500 in Q4 2026 Odds
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheniere Energy (LNG) | 49% | +104 | ▲ 3 |
| Astera Labs (ALAB) | 41% | +144 | ▼ 5 |
| HEICO (HEI) | 13% | +700 | — |
| Credo Technology (CRDO) | 21% | +376 | ▲ 1 |
| Rocket Companies (RKT) | 16% | +545 | ▼ 28 |
| Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) | 11% | +852 | ▼ 5 |
| Affirm Holdings (AFRM) | 7% | +1329 | — |
| Medline (MDLN) | 5% | +1842 | — |
| MongoDB (MDB) | 24% | +317 | ▼ 1 |
| SoFi Technologies (SOFI) | 28% | +251 | ▲ 1 |
| Strategy (MicroStrategy) (MSTR) | 2% | +4067 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. The next rebalance is currently scheduled for December 18, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that the listed company will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the listed ticker must match the announced ticker added to the index. An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date. The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
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