Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year Odds
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| A$AP Rocky | 6% | +1639 | ▲ 1 |
| Billie Eilish | 5% | +2028 | — |
| Doja Cat | 9% | +1070 | ▼ 1 |
| Ed Sheeran | 3% | +3822 | ▼ 15 |
| Future | 16% | +513 | ▼ 3 |
| Jack Harlow | 2% | +5782 | ▼ 2 |
| Kendrick Lamar | 18% | +471 | ▲ 1 |
| Lil Baby | 7% | +1251 | — |
| Luke Combs | 12% | +770 | ▼ 2 |
| Morgan Wallen | 23% | +335 | ▼ 0 |
| Peso Pluma | 8% | +1207 | — |
| Playboi Carti | 5% | +1787 | — |
| Post Malone | 17% | +506 | ▲ 2 |
| Rihanna | 5% | +1769 | — |
| Sabrina Carpenter | 11% | +852 | ▼ 0 |
| SZA | 6% | +1718 | — |
| The Weeknd | 13% | +700 | ▲ 5 |
| Travis Scott | 16% | +545 | ▼ 1 |
| Tyler, The Creator | 8% | +1150 | ▼ 0 |
| Zach Bryan | 3% | +2799 | ▼ 1 |
| Kanye West | 2% | +5028 | — |
| Frank Ocean | 7% | +1427 | — |
| Mariah Carey | 94% | -1670 | ▲ 6 |
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any song by the listed artist is the number 1 song in any official weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any song released with the listed artist as a primary artist will count, including songs released before 2026. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. Features, writing credits, production credits, or other forms of non-primary contributions to a song will not count. Artist attribution will be determined solely by the artists displayed by Billboard on the relevant chart. Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data collected in the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. The first Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the chart titled “Week of January 17, 2026” for a data collection reference period of January 2-8, 2026. The final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the Chart titled “Week of January 9, 2027” for a data collection reference period of December 25-31, 2026. Updates or revisions made within this market’s timeframe to the #1-ranked song on previously published Billboard Hot 100 charts will be considered; however, such updates will not disqualify a previously published Billboard Hot 100 #1 song from counting. If a Billboard Hot 100 #1 song is revised after initial publication, both the originally published #1 song and the revised #1 song will count for this market. Updates or revisions made after the release of the final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be the weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs charts published each week at https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/ and through other official Billboard channels.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 2, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
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