Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record Odds
Polymarket traders give 1 a 91% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 91% | -953 | ▲ 1 |
| 2 | 10% | +953 | — |
| 3 | <1% | +199900 | — |
| 4 | <1% | +199900 | — |
| 5 | <1% | +199900 | — |
| 6 or lower | <1% | +199900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price 1 at 91%, about -953 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Mar 2, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.