When will Trump leave China Odds
Polymarket traders give November 19 a 69% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 19 | 69% | -223 | — |
| November 18 | 9% | +1076 | — |
| November 20 | 7% | +1329 | — |
| No visit by November 22 | 4% | +2147 | — |
| November 21 | 3% | +3290 | — |
| November 22 | 2% | +4778 | — |
| After November 22 | 1% | +8991 | — |
| Before November 18 | <1% | +10426 | — |
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the calendar day, in China Standard Time, on which Donald Trump physically leaves China during his first visit to China that begins between market creation and November 22, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time. A "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Trump will be considered to leave China once he physically leaves the terrestrial and maritime territory of China. Trump’s presence in Chinese airspace will not be considered as being physically present in China. If Donald Trump begins a visit to China before November 22, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, but does not leave China by that time, this market will resolve to “After November 22”. If Donald Trump does not visit China by November 22, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No visit by November 22”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in When will Trump leave China?
As of Nov 11, 5:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price November 19 at 69%, about -223 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 23, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on When will Trump leave China?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.