When will Tesla and SpaceX merge Odds · Corporate announcement
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 1% | +9900 | — |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 2% | +4900 | — |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 5% | +2122 | ▼ 1 |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 12% | +733 | — |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | 26% | +292 | ▲ 3 |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | 38% | +163 | ▲ 2 |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 47% | +113 | — |
| Before May 1, 2027 | 57% | -135 | — |
| Before 2028 | 75% | -292 | ▲ 1 |
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Resolution rules
If Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Jun 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.