What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be Odds
Polymarket traders give <$1T a 26% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| <$1T | 26% | +285 | ▼ 2 |
| $1.25T–$1.5T | 20% | +396 | ▼ 1 |
| $1.5T–$1.75T | 18% | +445 | ▼ 1 |
| $1.75T–$2.0T | 14% | +641 | — |
| $1.0T–$1.25T | 10% | +920 | ▼ 0 |
| $2.5T+ | 6% | +1581 | ▼ 1 |
| $2.0T–$2.25T | 4% | +2464 | — |
| $2.25T–$2.5T | 3% | +2841 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price <$1T at 26%, about +285 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2028 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.