AZ-08 House winner? (2028): Republican party 91% ▲ 91AZ-09 House winner? (2028): Republican party 82% ▲ 82Big Bash League, Women: Sydney Sixers vs Syd… 9% ▼ 41Abu Dhabi T10 League: United Tigers vs Arabi… 9% ▼ 41Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (… 92% ▲ 39College Football Playoff Qualifiers: Ohio St. 14% ▼ 37Test Match: Afghanistan vs Zimbabwe: Zimbabwe 3% ▼ 29Test Match: Afghanistan vs Zimbabwe: Draw 77% ▲ 24Will Pete Hegseth be impeached: Before Apr 1… 83% ▲ 23Brazilian Grand Prix: Driver Winner: Max Ver… 13% ▼ 23Pete Hegseth impeached by...: March 31, 2027 78% ▲ 20Jonathan Taylor Next Team: New York G 31% ▼ 20Next Israeli government # of seats: <58 72% ▲ 20NCAA Football: 2026 Heisman Award Winner: CJ… 32% ▲ 19Khamenei # posts November 3 - November 10, 2… 85% ▲ 18Heisman Trophy Winner: CJ Carr 34% ▲ 18What will Trump say during 60 Minutes: Iran … 75% ▼ 17ATP Paris Winner: Carlos Alcaraz 77% ▲ 17NCAA Football: 2026 Heisman Award Winner: Je… 21% ▼ 17College Football Playoff Qualifiers: Texas 73% ▲ 17How much will Anthropic raise in its IPO: $6… 37% ▲ 17What will Trump say during 60 Minutes: Ukraine 69% ▼ 16Heisman Trophy Winner: Jeremiah Smith 23% ▼ 16Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (11/2 … 46% ▼ 15AZ-08 House winner? (2028): Republican party 91% ▲ 91AZ-09 House winner? (2028): Republican party 82% ▲ 82Big Bash League, Women: Sydney Sixers vs Syd… 9% ▼ 41Abu Dhabi T10 League: United Tigers vs Arabi… 9% ▼ 41Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (… 92% ▲ 39College Football Playoff Qualifiers: Ohio St. 14% ▼ 37Test Match: Afghanistan vs Zimbabwe: Zimbabwe 3% ▼ 29Test Match: Afghanistan vs Zimbabwe: Draw 77% ▲ 24Will Pete Hegseth be impeached: Before Apr 1… 83% ▲ 23Brazilian Grand Prix: Driver Winner: Max Ver… 13% ▼ 23Pete Hegseth impeached by...: March 31, 2027 78% ▲ 20Jonathan Taylor Next Team: New York G 31% ▼ 20Next Israeli government # of seats: <58 72% ▲ 20NCAA Football: 2026 Heisman Award Winner: CJ… 32% ▲ 19Khamenei # posts November 3 - November 10, 2… 85% ▲ 18Heisman Trophy Winner: CJ Carr 34% ▲ 18What will Trump say during 60 Minutes: Iran … 75% ▼ 17ATP Paris Winner: Carlos Alcaraz 77% ▲ 17NCAA Football: 2026 Heisman Award Winner: Je… 21% ▼ 17College Football Playoff Qualifiers: Texas 73% ▲ 17How much will Anthropic raise in its IPO: $6… 37% ▲ 17What will Trump say during 60 Minutes: Ukraine 69% ▼ 16Heisman Trophy Winner: Jeremiah Smith 23% ▼ 16Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (11/2 … 46% ▼ 15

What will JD Vance say during his rally in Kansas Odds · JD Vance - Midterm Rally in Topeka, Kansas originally scheduled for October 26, 2026

This market has resolved: Democrat. Final prices are below.

Kalshi Volume $51.5K Ended Nov 9, 2026 Updated Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST
OutcomeChanceOdds24h
Democrat ✓
99% -9900 —
Election ✓
99% -9900 —
Biden ✓
99% -9900 —
2028 / Campaign
1% +9900 —
Border ✓
99% -9900 —
Steel ✓
99% -9900 —
Afford / Affordable / Affordability ✓
99% -9900 —
Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime ✓
99% -9900 —
Manufacture / Manufacturing ✓
99% -9900 —
Working Class / Middle Class ✓
99% -9900 —
Economy / Economic
1% +9900 —
Social Security ✓
99% -9900 —
Fraud ✓
99% -9900 —
Illegal Alien
1% +9900 —
Farm / Farmer ✓
99% -9900 —
Fertilizer
1% +9900 —
Inflation
1% +9900 —
Healthcare
1% +9900 —
Tariff
1% +9900 —
Oil / Gas / Gasoline ✓
99% -9900 —
American Dream ✓
99% -9900 —
Radical Left
1% +9900 —
China / Chinese
1% +9900 —
Small Business
1% +9900 —
America First ✓
99% -9900 —
AI / Artificial Intelligence
1% +9900 —
Made in America / American Made
1% +9900 —
Event does not qualify
1% +9900 —

Price history

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Oct 24 Oct 29
Democrat

Resolution rules

If JD Vance says Democrat as part of Midterm Rally in Topeka, Kansas originally scheduled for October 26, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.

Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.

FAQ

How are prediction market odds calculated?

Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.

When does this market close?

Kalshi lists Nov 9, 2026 as the end date; this market has closed.

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