What will Claude Opus's output token price hit in 2026 Odds
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ $50 | 3% | +3290 | — |
| ↑ $30 | 25% | +300 | — |
| ↑ $25 | 22% | +355 | ▲ 1 |
| ↓ $15 | 56% | -130 | ▼ 0 |
| ↓ $10 | 21% | +376 | ▲ 1 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the standard output token price of Anthropic's latest Claude Opus model is equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the price specified in the title, in USD per million tokens, at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Anthropic's latest Claude Opus model means the model with the highest version number among models by Anthropic explicitly named Opus, such as Claude Opus 5 or Claude Opus 5.5, that have a standard output token price listed on Anthropic's official API pricing page. If more than one such model shares the highest version number, the most recently released of them applies. Only models that are publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups, will be considered; models available only through a closed beta or any form of private or limited access will not qualify. The relevant price is the “Base tokens” output price on Anthropic’s official API pricing page for default global inference, at the rate applicable to requests that do not trigger a long-context surcharge. Prices for batch, fast mode, cached, or US-only inference and other data-residency variants will not be considered. Any promotional, temporary, or volume-discount pricing will not be used for resolution; only the standard listed API price applies. A price qualifies only while the model is Anthropic's latest Claude Opus model as defined above, after market creation. The resolution source for this market will be Anthropic's official API pricing page (https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing). Official announcements and archived copies of this page may be used to confirm prices and when they were displayed; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on What will Claude Opus's output token price hit in 2026?
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