US trade deficit for 2026 Odds · 2026
Kalshi traders give Above 170 billion a 97% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 170 billion | 97% | -2757 | — |
| 105 billion to 119.5 billion | 3% | +3233 | — |
| 45 billion to 54.9 billion | 3% | +3900 | — |
| 65 billion to 74.9 billion | 3% | +3900 | — |
| 75 billion to 84.9 billion | 3% | +3900 | — |
| 95 billion to 104.9 billion | 3% | +3900 | — |
| 119.6 billion to 119.9 billion | 3% | +3900 | — |
| 120 billion to 139.9 billion | 3% | +3900 | — |
| 140 billion to 170 billion | 3% | +3900 | — |
| 85 billion to 94.9 billion | 2% | +4900 | — |
| Below 45 billion | 2% | +6567 | — |
| 55 billion to 64.9 billion | <1% | +19900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
If US trade deficit for 2026 is below 45 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in US trade deficit for 2026?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Kalshi price Above 170 billion at 97%, about -2757 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists May 29, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on US trade deficit for 2026?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.