US retail jobs added this holiday season Odds · September–December 2026
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 300,000 jobs | 97% | -2757 | — |
| Above 350,000 jobs | 96% | -2400 | — |
| Above 400,000 jobs | 92% | -1076 | — |
| Above 450,000 jobs | 80% | -388 | — |
| Above 500,000 jobs | 45% | +125 | — |
| Above 550,000 jobs | 11% | +809 | — |
| Above 600,000 jobs | 5% | +2122 | — |
We may earn a commission if you sign up or trade through links to venues. It never changes the prices or rankings we show. 18+ (21+ where required). Only trade where prediction markets are legal for you. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. How we make money
Price history
Resolution rules
If the U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 is above 300,000 jobs, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Jan 15, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on US retail jobs added this holiday season?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.