US new home · Sales in October Odds · October 2026
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 600,000 | 92% | -1076 | — |
| Above 620,000 | 84% | -525 | — |
| Above 640,000 | 69% | -223 | — |
| Above 660,000 | 57% | -133 | ▲ 29 |
| Above 680,000 | 43% | +135 | — |
| Above 700,000 | 0% | — | — |
| Above 720,000 | 19% | +426 | — |
| Above 740,000 | 12% | +733 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
If US new home sales (New Residential Sales) for October 2026 (seasonally adjusted annual rate, SAAR, reported in thousands of homes) is above 600,000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Dec 2, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on US new home · Sales in October?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.