US GDP growth in Q4 2026 Odds
Polymarket traders give 3.0% to 3.5% a 18% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0% to 3.5% | 18% | +471 | ▲ 7 |
| ≥4.0% | 17% | +506 | ▲ 3 |
| 2.0% to 2.5% | 14% | +590 | ▼ 1 |
| 2.5% to 3.0% | 14% | +590 | ▲ 3 |
| 3.5% to 4.0% | 10% | +900 | ▲ 2 |
| <1.5% | 8% | +1150 | ▼ 1 |
| 1.5% to 2.0% | 5% | +1941 | ▼ 14 |
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Price history
On Kalshi
The same question also trades on Kalshi. Check the resolution rules before comparing prices: small wording differences change what pays out.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled for January 28, 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in US GDP growth in Q4 2026?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price 3.0% to 3.5% at 18%, about +471 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 29, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on US GDP growth in Q4 2026?
This market trades on Polymarket and a matching market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.