US GDP growth in Q3 2026 Odds
This market has resolved: ≥3.0%. Final prices are below.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≥3.0% ✓ | 100% | — | ▲ 45 |
| <0.5% | 0% | — | — |
| 0.5–1.0% | 0% | — | — |
| 1.0–1.5% | 0% | — | ▼ 2 |
| 1.5–2.0% | 0% | — | ▼ 5 |
| 2.0–2.5% | 0% | — | ▼ 11 |
| 2.5–3.0% | 0% | — | ▼ 27 |
Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Oct 30, 2026 as the end date; this market has closed.
Where can I trade on US GDP growth in Q3 2026?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.