US economic state at the end of 2026 Odds
Polymarket traders give Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) a 82% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) | 82% | -452 | — |
| Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) | 17% | +480 | ▼ 2 |
| Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) | <1% | +66567 | — |
| Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) | <1% | +99900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release. This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026. If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026. This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%. The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in US economic state at the end of 2026?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) at 82%, about -452 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Feb 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on US economic state at the end of 2026?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.