UBS announces move out of Switzerland by... Odds
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 7% | +1438 | ▼ 2 |
| June 30, 2027 | 17% | +506 | ▲ 1 |
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Resolution rules
On September 23, 2026, Switzerland's upper house of parliament voted to raise UBS's capital requirements for its foreign subsidiaries, prompting speculation that UBS could move its headquarters out of Switzerland. This market will resolve to "Yes" if UBS Group AG ("UBS"), or an official representative of UBS, publicly announces that UBS will move its global headquarters or legal domicile, or those of its successor ultimate parent company, out of Switzerland between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The following will qualify: - An announcement from UBS or an official representative of UBS expressing that UBS has decided to move. - An announced agreed merger, acquisition, or adopted reorganization under which the ultimate parent company of UBS or of the combined group would be headquartered or domiciled outside Switzerland. The following will not qualify: - Statements that UBS is considering a move, could move, or would move depending on the outcome of Switzerland's capital requirements legislation. - An unsolicited acquisition proposal or preliminary transaction discussions. - Adding a headquarters outside Switzerland while keeping one in Switzerland, unless the legal domicile also moves out of Switzerland. - Moving only a subsidiary or business unit. No shareholder or regulatory approval of the move is required, and a qualifying announcement will count regardless of whether or when the move actually occurs. An announced decision subject to shareholder or regulatory approval will qualify. A subsequent withdrawal or reversal of the announced decision will not change the market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from UBS and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
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Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jul 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
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