Fed decision in Dec 2026 Odds · On Dec 9, 2026
Kalshi traders give Hike 25bps a 77% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hike 25bps | 77% | -326 | ▲ 1 |
| Fed maintains rate | 23% | +344 | ▼ 2 |
| Hike >25bps | 2% | +6567 | — |
| Cut 25bps | 1% | +9900 | — |
| Cut >25bps | <1% | +19900 | — |
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Price history
On Polymarket
The same question also trades on Polymarket. Check the resolution rules before comparing prices: small wording differences change what pays out.
Resolution rules
If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on December 09, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Fed decision in Dec 2026?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Kalshi price Hike 25bps at 77%, about -326 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Dec 9, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Fed decision in Dec 2026?
This market trades on Kalshi and a matching market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.