Third-best AI Lab end of October Odds
This market has resolved: Meta. Final prices are below.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Meta ✓ | 100% | — | ▲ 12 |
| Anthropic | 0% | — | ▼ 5 |
| 0% | — | — | |
| Alibaba | 0% | — | ▼ 5 |
| Moonshot | 0% | — | ▼ 5 |
| OpenAI | 0% | — | ▼ 1 |
| Baidu | 0% | — | — |
| Z.ai | 0% | — | — |
| Xiaomi | 0% | — | ▼ 2 |
| SpaceXAI | 0% | — | — |
| DeepSeek | 0% | — | — |
| Amazon | 0% | — | — |
| ByteDance | 0% | — | — |
| Nvidia | 0% | — | — |
| Thinky | 0% | — | — |
| MiniMax | 0% | — | — |
| Mistral | 0% | — | — |
| Meituan | 0% | — | — |
| Tencent | 0% | — | — |
| StepFun | 0% | — | — |
| Microsoft | 0% | — | — |
| Company A | 0% | — | — |
| Company B | 0% | — | — |
| Company C | 0% | — | — |
| Company D | 0% | — | — |
| Company E | 0% | — | — |
| Company F | 0% | — | — |
| Company G | 0% | — | — |
| Company H | 0% | — | — |
| Company I | 0% | — | — |
| Company K | 0% | — | — |
| Other | 0% | — | — |
Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Oct 31, 2026 as the end date; this market has closed.
Where can I trade on Third-best AI Lab end of October?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.