Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 16, 2026 Odds · October 16, 2026
This market has resolved: Above 54,000 MW. Final prices are below.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 54,000 MW ✓ | 99% | -9900 | — |
| Above 54,500 MW ✓ | 98% | -4900 | — |
| Above 55,000 MW | 1% | +9900 | — |
| Above 55,500 MW | 4% | +2400 | — |
| Above 56,000 MW | 1% | +9900 | — |
| Above 56,500 MW | 1% | +9900 | — |
| Above 57,000 MW | 1% | +9900 | — |
| Above 57,500 MW | 1% | +9900 | — |
| Above 58,000 MW | 1% | +9900 | — |
| Above 58,500 MW | 2% | +4900 | — |
| Above 59,000 MW | 1% | +9900 | — |
| Above 59,500 MW | 2% | +4900 | — |
| Above 60,000 MW | 2% | +4900 | — |
| Above 60,500 MW | 1% | +9900 | — |
| Above 61,000 MW | 0% | — | — |
| Above 61,500 MW | 0% | — | — |
| Above 62,000 MW | 1% | +9900 | — |
| Above 62,500 MW | 0% | — | — |
| Above 63,000 MW | 1% | +9900 | — |
Price history
Resolution rules
If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 16, 2026 is above 54,000 MW, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Oct 24, 2026 as the end date; this market has closed.
Where can I trade on Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Oct 16, 2026?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.