Tesla deliveries in Q1 2027 Odds · total deliveries in Q1 2027
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 225000 | 98% | -3900 | — |
| Above 250000 | 98% | -3900 | — |
| Above 275000 | 97% | -3233 | — |
| Above 300,000 | 95% | -1900 | — |
| Above 325,000 | 96% | -2400 | — |
| Above 350,000 | 91% | -1011 | — |
| Above 375,000 | 82% | -441 | — |
| Above 400,000 | 70% | -233 | — |
| Above 425,000 | 57% | -133 | ▲ 4 |
| Above 450,000 | 41% | +147 | ▲ 7 |
| Above 475,000 | 37% | +174 | — |
| Above 500,000 | 22% | +355 | — |
| Above 525,000 | 11% | +809 | — |
| Above 550,000 | 7% | +1438 | — |
| Above 575,000 | 5% | +2122 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
If Tesla reports Above 225000 total deliveries in Q1 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Jul 31, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Tesla deliveries in Q1 2027?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.