Supreme Court overturns federal ban on home distilleries Odds
Polymarket traders give No a 65% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 35% | +186 | — |
| No | 65% | -186 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on or before July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the Supreme Court of the United States issues an opinion, per curiam decision, or judgment in Department of Justice v. McNutt or any consolidated case that holds the federal prohibition on the distillation of distilled spirits in a dwelling house facially invalid. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A holding that Congress lacks the constitutional authority to enact the prohibition will qualify regardless of the constitutional ground relied upon or the scope of the relief or remedy ordered. Where the Court affirms in part and reverses in part, issues a plurality opinion, or resolves the case on alternative grounds, this market will resolve to "Yes" only if the prohibition on distillation in a dwelling house itself is invalidated on its face. A decision that invalidates the prohibition only as applied to particular parties or circumstances, without such a holding, will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". This market will immediately resolve to "No" if the Court issues a merits ruling in Department of Justice v. McNutt that leaves the prohibition facially valid, or if Department of Justice v. McNutt and any consolidated case are terminated without a ruling that satisfies the conditions above, including by a dismissal as improvidently granted, a denial of certiorari, a summary disposition or emergency docket order that does not reach the question presented, a non-merits vacatur or remand, a settlement, a voluntary dismissal, or any other termination without a merits ruling. If no qualifying ruling has been issued by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, including because the case remains undecided, this market will resolve to "No". Resolution will be based on the Court's opinion or judgment as announced; a subsequent petition for rehearing will not delay or alter resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Supreme Court overturns federal ban on home distilleries"?
As of Nov 11, 5:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No at 65%, about -186 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Aug 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Supreme Court overturns federal ban on home distilleries?
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