Supreme Court lets parents sue over Washington trans law Odds
Polymarket traders give “Yes” a 55% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 55% | -120 | ▼ 16 |
| No | 45% | +120 | ▲ 17 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
International Partners for Ethical Care, Inc. v. Ferguson (No. 25-840) is a challenge by a group of parents to Washington State laws that allow youth shelters to withhold notice to parents when a minor is seeking gender-affirming care. The United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit held that the parents lack standing to bring the challenge. This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on or before July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the Supreme Court of the United States issues an opinion, per curiam decision, or judgment in International Partners for Ethical Care, Inc. v. Ferguson or any consolidated case that holds that at least one petitioner has standing to bring at least one of the challenged claims referenced in this case. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying holding will count regardless of whether the Court reverses or vacates the judgment of the Ninth Circuit, remands for further proceedings, or decides the merits of the petitioners' claims, and regardless of how the Court rules on those merits. Where the Court issues a plurality opinion or a fractured decision, this market will resolve based on the Court's judgment: a judgment that reverses or vacates the Ninth Circuit's determination that the petitioners lack standing, as to at least one petitioner, will qualify. This market will immediately resolve to "No" if the Court affirms the judgment that the petitioners lack standing, including on alternative grounds, or if the case and any consolidated case are terminated without a qualifying holding, including by a dismissal as improvidently granted, a vacatur for mootness or other non-merits vacatur or remand that does not rest on a holding that a petitioner has standing, a settlement, a voluntary dismissal, or any other termination without a qualifying holding. If no qualifying ruling has been issued by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, including because the case remains undecided or has been set for re-argument, this market will resolve to "No". Resolution will be based on the Court's opinion or judgment as announced; a subsequent petition for rehearing will not delay or alter resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Supreme Court lets parents sue over Washington trans law"?
As of Nov 11, 5:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price Yes at 55%, about -120 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Aug 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Supreme Court lets parents sue over Washington trans law?
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