Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (November 2026) Odds · in Nov 2026
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 5 ✓ | 97% | -3233 | — |
| At least 6 | 97% | -3233 | — |
| At least 7 | 0% | — | — |
| At least 8 | 75% | -300 | — |
| At least 9 | 53% | -113 | — |
| At least 10 | 10% | +900 | — |
| At least 12 | 8% | +1150 | ▲ 8 |
| At least 14 | 8% | +1150 | — |
| At least 16 | 4% | +2400 | — |
| At least 20 | 7% | +1329 | — |
| At least 25 | 5% | +2122 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
If the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is at least 5 in Nov 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Mar 8, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (November 2026)?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.