State of the economy at the end of 2026 Odds · In Dec 2026
Kalshi traders give Overheating a 81% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overheating | 81% | -431 | ▼ 3 |
| Soft landing | 19% | +425 | ▲ 2 |
| Stagflation | 2% | +4778 | — |
| Slack / disinflation | <1% | +33233 | — |
We may earn a commission if you sign up or trade through links to venues. It never changes the prices or rankings we show. 18+ (21+ where required). Only trade where prediction markets are legal for you. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. How we make money
Price history
Resolution rules
If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is At least 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is at least 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in State of the economy at the end of 2026?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Kalshi price Overheating at 81%, about -431 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Jan 13, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on State of the economy at the end of 2026?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.