South African Reserve Bank Decision in January Odds
Polymarket traders give 25 bps increase a 56% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 bps increase | 56% | -127 | ▲ 5 |
| No Change | 39% | +160 | ▲ 8 |
| 50+ bps increase | 38% | +167 | ▲ 7 |
| 50+ bps decrease | 3% | +2841 | — |
| 25 bps decrease | 3% | +3822 | ▼ 12 |
We may earn a commission if you sign up or trade through links to venues. It never changes the prices or rankings we show. 18+ (21+ where required). Only trade where prediction markets are legal for you. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. How we make money
Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the repo rate resulting from the January 2027 meeting of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its January 2027 meeting, scheduled for January 28, 2027, as listed on the official South African Reserve Bank calendar (https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/calendar). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its January 2027 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in South African Reserve Bank Decision in January?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price 25 bps increase at 56%, about -127 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 28, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on South African Reserve Bank Decision in January?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.