AZ-08 House winner? (2028): Republican party 91% ▲ 91AZ-09 House winner? (2028): Republican party 82% ▲ 82ACC Men's U19 Asia Cup: India Under-19s vs P… 4% ▼ 46Big Bash League, Women: Sydney Sixers vs Syd… 9% ▼ 41Abu Dhabi T10 League: United Tigers vs Arabi… 9% ▼ 41Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (… 91% ▲ 38College Football Playoff Qualifiers: Ohio St. 14% ▼ 37Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by… 26% ▼ 29Brazilian Grand Prix: Driver Winner: Max Ver… 13% ▼ 23Pete Hegseth impeached by...: March 31, 2027 77% ▲ 21How much will Anthropic raise in its IPO: $7… 19% ▼ 21NCAA Football: 2026 Heisman Award Winner: CJ… 32% ▲ 19Khamenei # posts November 3 - November 10, 2… 85% ▲ 18Heisman Trophy Winner: CJ Carr 34% ▲ 18Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (11/2 … 45% ▼ 18How much will Anthropic raise in its IPO: $6… 38% ▲ 17NCAA Football: 2026 Heisman Award Winner: Je… 21% ▼ 17Next leader out of power before 2027: Netany… 43% ▲ 17Test Match: Afghanistan vs Zimbabwe: Draw 83% ▲ 17What will Trump say during 60 Minutes: Ukraine 69% ▼ 16Jonathan Taylor Next Team: Indianapolis 41% ▲ 16Jonathan Taylor Next Team: New York G 31% ▼ 16Heisman Trophy Winner: Jeremiah Smith 23% ▼ 16College Football Playoff Qualifiers: Texas 74% ▲ 16AZ-08 House winner? (2028): Republican party 91% ▲ 91AZ-09 House winner? (2028): Republican party 82% ▲ 82ACC Men's U19 Asia Cup: India Under-19s vs P… 4% ▼ 46Big Bash League, Women: Sydney Sixers vs Syd… 9% ▼ 41Abu Dhabi T10 League: United Tigers vs Arabi… 9% ▼ 41Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (… 91% ▲ 38College Football Playoff Qualifiers: Ohio St. 14% ▼ 37Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by… 26% ▼ 29Brazilian Grand Prix: Driver Winner: Max Ver… 13% ▼ 23Pete Hegseth impeached by...: March 31, 2027 77% ▲ 21How much will Anthropic raise in its IPO: $7… 19% ▼ 21NCAA Football: 2026 Heisman Award Winner: CJ… 32% ▲ 19Khamenei # posts November 3 - November 10, 2… 85% ▲ 18Heisman Trophy Winner: CJ Carr 34% ▲ 18Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (11/2 … 45% ▼ 18How much will Anthropic raise in its IPO: $6… 38% ▲ 17NCAA Football: 2026 Heisman Award Winner: Je… 21% ▼ 17Next leader out of power before 2027: Netany… 43% ▲ 17Test Match: Afghanistan vs Zimbabwe: Draw 83% ▲ 17What will Trump say during 60 Minutes: Ukraine 69% ▼ 16Jonathan Taylor Next Team: Indianapolis 41% ▲ 16Jonathan Taylor Next Team: New York G 31% ▼ 16Heisman Trophy Winner: Jeremiah Smith 23% ▼ 16College Football Playoff Qualifiers: Texas 74% ▲ 16

S&P price on Nov 4, 2026 at 1pm EST Odds · On Nov 4, 2026 at 1pm EST

This market has resolved: 7,375 or above. Final prices are below.

Kalshi Volume $162K Ended Nov 4, 2026 Updated Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST
OutcomeChanceOdds24h
7,375 or above ✓
99% -9900 ▲ 99
7,380 or above ✓
99% -9900 ▲ 99
7,385 or above ✓
99% -9900 ▲ 99
7,390 or above ✓
99% -9900 ▲ 99
7,395 or above ✓
99% -9900 ▲ 99
7,400 or above ✓
99% -9900 ▲ 99
7,405 or above ✓
99% -9900 ▲ 99
7,410 or above ✓
99% -9900 ▲ 99
7,415 or above ✓
99% -9900 ▲ 99
7,420 or above ✓
99% -9900 ▲ 99
7,425 or above ✓
99% -9900 ▲ 99
7,430 or above ✓
99% -9900 ▲ 99
7,435 or above ✓
99% -9900 ▲ 99
7,440 or above ✓
99% -9900 ▲ 99
7,445 or above ✓
99% -9900 ▲ 99
7,450 or above ✓
99% -9900 ▲ 99
7,455 or above ✓
99% -9900 ▲ 99
7,460 or above ✓
99% -9900 ▲ 99
7,465 or above ✓
99% -9900 ▲ 99
7,470 or above ✓
99% -9900 ▲ 99
7,475 or above ✓
99% -9900 ▲ 99
7,480 or above ✓
99% -9900 ▲ 99
7,485 or above ✓
99% -9900 ▲ 99
7,490 or above ✓
99% -9900 ▲ 99
7,495 or above ✓
99% -9900 ▲ 99
7,500 or above ✓
99% -9900 ▲ 99
7,505 or above ✓
99% -9900 ▲ 99
7,510 or above ✓
99% -9900 ▲ 99
7,515 or above ✓
99% -9900 ▲ 99
7,520 or above ✓
99% -9900 ▲ 99
7,525 or above ✓
99% -9900 ▲ 99
7,530 or above ✓
99% -9900 ▲ 99
7,535 or above ✓
99% -9900 ▲ 99
7,540 or above ✓
99% -9900 ▲ 99
7,545 or above ✓
99% -9900 ▲ 99
7,550 or above ✓
99% -9900 ▲ 99
7,555 or above ✓
99% -9900 ▲ 99
7,560 or above ✓
99% -9900 ▲ 99
7,565 or above ✓
99% -9900 ▲ 99
7,570 or above ✓
99% -9900 ▲ 99

Showing the top 40 of 80 outcomes.

Price history

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Nov 4 Nov 4
7,375 or above

Resolution rules

If the S&P 500 index value on Nov 4, 2026 at 1pm EST is above 7374.9999, then the market resolves to Yes.

Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.

FAQ

How are prediction market odds calculated?

Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.

When does this market close?

Kalshi lists Nov 4, 2026 as the end date; this market has closed.

Where can I trade on S&P price on Nov 4, 2026 at 1pm EST?

This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.