S&P price at year-end? Odds · On Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6,900 or above | 83% | -488 | — |
| 7,000 or above | 85% | -567 | — |
| 7,100 or above | 83% | -471 | — |
| 7,200 or above | 75% | -300 | — |
| 7,300 or above | 63% | -170 | ▼ 1 |
| 7,400 or above | 56% | -127 | ▼ 2 |
| 7,500 or above | 59% | -144 | — |
| 7,600 or above | 48% | +108 | ▲ 3 |
| 7,700 or above | 33% | +203 | — |
| 7,800 or above | 21% | +376 | — |
| 7,900 or above | 19% | +426 | ▲ 9 |
| 8,000 or above | 15% | +567 | — |
| 8,100 or above | 12% | +733 | ▲ 1 |
| 8,200 or above | 7% | +1329 | — |
| 8,300 or above | 7% | +1329 | — |
| 8,400 or above | 6% | +1567 | — |
| 8,500 or above | 3% | +3233 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
If the S&P 500 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is above 6900, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Dec 31, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on S&P price at year-end??
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.