Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad Odds
Polymarket traders give No a 98% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | +4778 | — |
| No | 98% | -4778 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a human case of pneumonic plague outside the Russian Federation is confirmed and established as epidemiologically linked to the outbreak associated with the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "confirmed case" is a case explicitly identified by a qualifying source as laboratory-confirmed Yersinia pestis infection with pneumonic (pulmonary) involvement, or explicitly announced as a confirmed pneumonic plague case. A bubonic or septicemic case that progresses to pneumonic plague qualifies. An epidemiological link means a qualifying source states that the case acquired its infection from a person, animal, sample or material connected to the Irkutsk outbreak, or that the case travelled from Irkutsk Oblast within the incubation period and is being investigated as part of that outbreak. Resolution is based on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation and the link, not the date of exposure, symptom onset or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier. The primary resolution source for this market will be the WHO and the national public health authority of the country reporting the case; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad"?
As of Nov 8, 7:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No at 98%, about -4778 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.