Open source token share Nov 23–29 (OpenRouter) Odds · Open-weight models market share - Nov 23, 2026
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 60% | 65% | -186 | — |
| Above 70% | 98% | -4900 | — |
| Above 72% | 16% | +525 | — |
| Above 74% | 98% | -4900 | — |
| Above 76% | 17% | +488 | — |
| Above 78% | 88% | -733 | — |
| Above 80% | 10% | +900 | — |
| Above 82% | 10% | +900 | — |
| Above 84% | 71% | -245 | — |
| Above 86% | 22% | +355 | — |
| Above 88% | 4% | +2400 | — |
| Above 90% | 12% | +733 | — |
| Above 92% | 3% | +3233 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
If Open-weight models scores above 60% on OpenRouter Open / Closed weekly token-share chart week of Nov 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Dec 7, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Open source token share Nov 23–29 (OpenRouter)?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.