Nvidia’s Market Cap end of 2026 Odds
Polymarket traders give $4.00-$4.50T a 21% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| $4.00-$4.50T | 21% | +368 | ▼ 1 |
| $4.50-$5.00T | 21% | +376 | ▼ 0 |
| $5.00-$5.50T | 21% | +388 | ▼ 4 |
| <$4.00T | 14% | +602 | ▲ 1 |
| $6.50T+ | 6% | +1567 | — |
| $5.50-$6.00T | 6% | +1718 | ▲ 1 |
| $6.00-$6.50T | 3% | +2977 | ▲ 2 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to Nvidia's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026. If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Nvidia’s Market Cap end of 2026?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price $4.00-$4.50T at 21%, about +368 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Dec 31, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Nvidia’s Market Cap end of 2026?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.