November Unemployment Rate Odds
Polymarket traders give 4.2% a 38% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.2% | 38% | +167 | ▲ 14 |
| 4.1% | 32% | +212 | ▼ 8 |
| 4.0% | 18% | +471 | ▼ 7 |
| 4.3% | 10% | +953 | ▼ 13 |
| 3.9% | 2% | +6150 | ▼ 21 |
| 4.4% | 1% | +8991 | ▼ 22 |
| ≤3.8% | 1% | +9424 | ▼ 23 |
| 4.5% | <1% | +18082 | ▼ 22 |
| ≥4.6% | <1% | +22122 | ▼ 23 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for November 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question. The relevant data release is scheduled for December 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in November Unemployment Rate?
As of Nov 11, 5:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price 4.2% at 38%, about +167 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Dec 4, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on November Unemployment Rate?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.