Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027 Odds
Polymarket traders give No a 82% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 18% | +470 | — |
| No | 82% | -470 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
What are the odds of "Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027"?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price No at 82%, about -470 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.