Jobs numbers in October 2026 Odds · In Oct 2026
This market has resolved. Final prices are below.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above -25,000 | 96% | -2400 | ▼ 1 |
| Above 0 | 92% | -1150 | ▲ 1 |
| Above 10,000 | 90% | -900 | ▲ 2 |
| Above 20,000 | 83% | -488 | ▼ 3 |
| Above 30,000 | 78% | -355 | ▲ 3 |
| Above 40,000 | 76% | -317 | ▲ 6 |
| Above 50,000 | 75% | -300 | ▲ 17 |
| Above 60,000 | 51% | -104 | ▼ 6 |
| Above 70,000 | 41% | +144 | ▼ 7 |
| Above 80,000 | 65% | -186 | ▲ 26 |
| Above 90,000 | 17% | +488 | ▼ 16 |
| Above 100,000 | 30% | +233 | ▲ 4 |
| Above 125,000 | 16% | +525 | ▼ 2 |
Price history
Resolution rules
If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above -25000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Nov 6, 2026 as the end date; this market has closed.
Where can I trade on Jobs numbers in October 2026?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.