JD Vance resigns as Vice President by... Odds
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 2% | +4155 | — |
| December 31, 2027 | 13% | +669 | ▲ 3 |
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Resolution rules
This market resolves to “Yes” if J.D. Vance’s resignation as U.S. Vice President is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The resignation will be considered to be announced when J.D. Vance, the White House, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that J.D. Vance has resigned or will resign from the position of U.S. Vice President. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when J.D. Vance formally leaves the position. Only announcements of J.D. Vance's departure through self-initiated means qualify. Self-initiated means include retirement, mutual agreement, or other self-initiated departures, including a resignation he was asked or directed to submit. Announcements of firing, dismissal, or other externally-imposed departures do not qualify. Only announcements which are framed as announcing a resignation intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify). Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to J.D. Vance’s duties as U.S. Vice President do not qualify. The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that J.D. Vance is considering or open to resigning; conditional statements that J.D. Vance will resign only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that J.D. Vance plans to resign; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than J.D. Vance, the White House, or their respective authorized representatives. As J.D. Vance holds the position of U.S. Vice President on a predefined term scheduled to end on January 20, 2029, only announcements that he will resign the position prior to the scheduled end of his term qualify. If J.D. Vance formally resigns as U.S. Vice President before the end of his scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to “Yes” if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the resignation by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. This market will immediately resolve to “No” if J.D. Vance is either promoted to be President of the United States or leaves office for any reason other than resignation. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from J.D. Vance and the White House; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2028 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on JD Vance resigns as Vice President by...?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.