Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized) Odds
Polymarket traders give 0.0%–0.8% a 34% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0%–0.8% | 34% | +198 | ▼ 6 |
| -0.8%–0.0% | 22% | +355 | ▲ 7 |
| 0.8%–1.6% | 20% | +403 | ▼ 1 |
| -1.6%– -0.8% | 6% | +1513 | ▼ 1 |
| 1.6%–2.4% | 5% | +1962 | ▼ 1 |
| -2.4%– -1.6% | 4% | +2757 | — |
| 3.2%–4.0% | 2% | +5028 | ▲ 1 |
| <-2.4% | 1% | +8596 | — |
| 4.0%+ | 1% | +9900 | ▼ 2 |
| 2.4%–3.2% | <1% | +11665 | ▼ 2 |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026. The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price 0.0%–0.8% at 34%, about +198 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Nov 17, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.