Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026 Odds
Polymarket traders give 2.6-2.8% a 31% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.6-2.8% | 31% | +227 | ▲ 4 |
| 2.8-3.0% | 20% | +412 | ▼ 3 |
| 2.4-2.6% | 16% | +537 | ▲ 2 |
| 3.0%+ | 12% | +770 | ▼ 1 |
| 2.0-2.2% | 5% | +2005 | — |
| <2.0% | 3% | +3126 | — |
| 2.2-2.4% | 3% | +3409 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026. The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026?
As of Nov 8, 7:30 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price 2.6-2.8% at 31%, about +227 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Feb 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.