How many US births in 2026 Odds
Polymarket traders give 3.56M–3.59M a 50% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.56M–3.59M | 50% | +102 | ▲ 10 |
| 3.53M–3.56M | 38% | +167 | ▲ 1 |
| 3.65M+ | 8% | +1150 | ▲ 1 |
| 3.59M–3.62M | 7% | +1329 | ▼ 4 |
| 3.62M–3.65M | 2% | +6352 | ▼ 4 |
| 3.50M–3.53M | 1% | +8991 | ▼ 1 |
| <3.50M | <1% | +66567 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of births in the United States in 2026, as reported in the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) annual provisional births report for 2026, meaning the first NCHS report that presents provisional birth data for the full calendar year 2026, regardless of its exact title or format (see 2025 example, “Births: Provisional Data for 2025”: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr043.pdf), estimated to be released in April 2027. Provisional counts or estimates covering only part of 2026, and full-year figures published only in data dashboards, data files, or statistical tables rather than in such a report, will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The report is expected to be made available here: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/births.htm If NCHS does not release its annual provisional births report for 2026 by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Note: The relevant data will be the total number of births in the United States in 2026 as stated in the annual provisional births report for 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of this report will not be considered for this market’s resolution.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in How many US births in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price 3.56M–3.59M at 50%, about +102 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists May 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on How many US births in 2026?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.