How many Fed rate hikes in 2026 Odds
Polymarket traders give 2 (50 bps) a 78% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 (50 bps) | 78% | -344 | ▲ 2 |
| 1 (25 bps) | 24% | +326 | ▲ 1 |
| 3 (75 bps) | <1% | +18082 | — |
| 4 (100 bps) | <1% | +199900 | — |
| 5+ (125+ bps) | <1% | +199900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price 2 (50 bps) at 78%, about -344 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.