How many Fed rate cuts in 2026 Odds
Polymarket traders give 0 (0 bps) a 98% chance.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 (0 bps) | 98% | -6150 | ▲ 1 |
| 1 (25 bps) | <1% | +15285 | ▼ 1 |
| 2 (50 bps) | <1% | +33233 | — |
| 3 (75 bps) | <1% | +66567 | — |
| 4 (100 bps) | <1% | +66567 | — |
| 12+ (300+ bps) | <1% | +99900 | — |
| 5 (125 bps) | <1% | +199900 | — |
| 6 (150 bps) | <1% | +199900 | — |
| 7 (175 bps) | <1% | +199900 | — |
| 8 (200 bps) | <1% | +199900 | — |
| 9 (225 bps) | <1% | +199900 | — |
| 10 (250 bps) | <1% | +199900 | — |
| 11 (275 bps) | <1% | +199900 | — |
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Price history
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
Who is favored in How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 6:00 AM EST, traders on Polymarket price 0 (0 bps) at 98%, about -6150 in American odds. Prices move with every trade.
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Jan 1, 2027 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
This market trades on Polymarket. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.