How low will the 2-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026 Odds · In Oct 2026
This market has resolved: 4.91% or below. Final prices are below.
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.91% or below ✓ | 99% | -9900 | — |
| 4.9% or below ✓ | 99% | -9900 | — |
| 4.89% or below ✓ | 99% | -9900 | — |
| 4.88% or below ✓ | 99% | -9900 | — |
| 4.87% or below ✓ | 99% | -9900 | — |
| 4.86% or below ✓ | 99% | -9900 | — |
| 4.85% or below ✓ | 99% | -9900 | — |
| 4.84% or below ✓ | 99% | -9900 | — |
| 4.83% or below ✓ | 99% | -9900 | — |
| 4.82% or below ✓ | 99% | -9900 | — |
| 4.81% or below ✓ | 99% | -9900 | — |
| 4.8% or below ✓ | 99% | -9900 | — |
| 4.79% or below ✓ | 99% | -9900 | — |
| 4.78% or below ✓ | 99% | -9900 | — |
| 4.77% or below ✓ | 81% | -426 | — |
| 4.76% or below ✓ | 90% | -900 | — |
| 4.75% or below ✓ | 84% | -525 | — |
| 4.74% or below ✓ | 70% | -233 | — |
| 4.73% or below ✓ | 93% | -1329 | — |
| 4.72% or below ✓ | 60% | -150 | — |
| 4.71% or below ✓ | 85% | -567 | — |
| 4.7% or below ✓ | 87% | -669 | — |
| 4.69% or below ✓ | 43% | +133 | — |
| 4.68% or below ✓ | 34% | +194 | — |
| 4.67% or below ✓ | 87% | -669 | — |
| 4.66% or below ✓ | 94% | -1567 | — |
| 4.65% or below ✓ | 48% | +108 | — |
| 4.64% or below ✓ | 96% | -2400 | — |
| 4.63% or below ✓ | 99% | -9900 | — |
| 4.62% or below ✓ | 88% | -733 | — |
| 4.61% or below ✓ | 99% | -9900 | ▲ 72 |
| 4.6% or below | 82% | -456 | ▲ 36 |
| 4.59% or below | 95% | -1900 | ▲ 77 |
| 4.58% or below | 88% | -733 | ▲ 78 |
| 4.57% or below | 53% | -113 | ▲ 34 |
| 4.56% or below | 98% | -4900 | ▲ 80 |
| 4.55% or below | 87% | -669 | ▲ 75 |
| 4.54% or below | 62% | -163 | ▲ 51 |
| 4.53% or below | 25% | +300 | ▲ 10 |
| 4.52% or below | 30% | +233 | ▲ 10 |
Showing the top 40 of 60 outcomes.
Resolution rules
If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is below 4.92% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Source: Kalshi. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Kalshi lists Oct 30, 2026 as the end date; this market has closed.
Where can I trade on How low will the 2-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?
This market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.