How low will 2-year Treasury yield get in November Odds
| Outcome | Chance | Odds | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below 4.44% | 61% | -153 | ▼ 8 |
| Below 4.41% | 54% | -117 | ▼ 5 |
| Below 4.38% | 48% | +111 | ▲ 1 |
| Below 4.35% | 46% | +120 | ▲ 7 |
| Below 4.32% | 30% | +239 | ▲ 1 |
| Below 4.29% | 14% | +641 | ▼ 32 |
| Below 4.26% | 16% | +525 | ▼ 29 |
| Below 4.22% | 14% | +590 | ▼ 29 |
| Below 4.18% | 8% | +1233 | ▲ 1 |
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Price history
On Kalshi
A similar market trades on Kalshi. Check the resolution rules before comparing prices: small wording differences change what pays out.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 2-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 3, 2026 and November 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 2-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of November 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of November 2026 by December 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "2 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Source: Polymarket. The venue's rules are final.
FAQ
How are prediction market odds calculated?
Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, so its price is the market's implied probability: a 60¢ contract means roughly a 60% chance. We show the last trade, or the midpoint between the best bid and ask when the order book is tight.
When does this market close?
Polymarket lists Dec 1, 2026 as the end date. It can close earlier if the outcome is decided.
Where can I trade on How low will 2-year Treasury yield get in November?
This market trades on Polymarket and a matching market trades on Kalshi. Availability depends on where you live: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, while Polymarket's international site isn't available to US users (Polymarket US is a separate app). You must be 18 or older.